Blackjack Insurance Example

1. Blackjack Insurance Rule
2. Insurance Blackjack Meaning
3. Blackjack Insurance Count
4. Blackjack Insurance Example

Michael Shackleford: Hi guys, this is Mike and the purpose of today's Wizard of Odds Academy lesson will be to explain why you should never take insurance in Blackjack. What insurance is, is a side bet that the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole.

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It is offered when the dealer already has an ace up, so it wins in the event that the dealer gets a blackjack. The insurance bet can be made for up to half of the player's original bet and it pays two to one if it wins.

I'm going to…

…put a two for the pace if the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole and a negative one if the dealer has an ace and a nine which represents that the player lost his insurance bet.

Let's assume six packs of cards, shall we?

Assuming no other information other than the ace up the dealer already has, there are 96 winning cards for the insurance bet, 16 times 6 out of 311 left. There's 311 because a full six-deck shoe is 312 cards and we take one out because of the dealer's ace, and there are 215 cards that will cause the insurance bet to lose.

Let's take the product of the win and the probability.

2 times 96 over 311 is 61.74% and 215 divided by 311 times -1 is -69.13%. In other words, the player can expect to win 61.74% of his bet and lose 69.13% of his bet. We take the sum which is -7.40%. That means that for every dollar the player bets on insurance, he can expect to lose 7.4 cents or 7.4% of whatever his insurance bet is.

7.4% is a pretty high house advantage and consequently, I recommend that you say no to insurance every time. Before someone says in the comments, 'Mike, what if the count is good? What if I'm counting cards?'

Yes. Then, of course, there are exceptions. If you've been counting cards and you know that the remaining cards are very 10 rich, but for the recreational player that's not counting, insurance is a terrible bet and, again, I recommend you decline it every time.

'What about even money?'

You might be asking me. Well, let me explain to you first of all, that the even money offer is the same thing as taking insurance. It's only offered when the player already has a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up.

Let's look…

…at what would happen both ways if the player has a blackjack and takes insurance. If the dealer ends up getting that blackjack, the main bet will push, so it wins nothing, but the insurance but will win one unit because the player bets half a unit on insurance. The insurance but pays two to one on the winning blackjack. One-half times two equals one.

Next…

If the dealer does not get that blackjack, the player's main wager will pay one and a half but he will lose half a unit on the insurance. The combined when between the main wager and the insurance wager is one unit when the dealer does get a blackjack and one unit when the dealer does not get a blackjack.

It doesn't make any difference whether or not the dealer gets a blackjack. If the player has a blackjack and takes insurance, he wins one unit either way and what the dealer is essentially saying is, 'Look, if you take insurance, you're going to win one to one regardless if I have a blackjack. I may as well just pay you now before I even check what I have.”

It sounds attractive but let's do some math and see if you should take it. Let's evaluate the situation where the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up and the player declines insurance. If the dealer has a 10 in the hole, then the player will win nothing because it will be a blackjack against blackjack tie, in other words, a push. If the dealer has anything else in the hole, the player will win his full three to two on his wager or 1.5.

Let's assume:

knowledge of no other cards in the shoe other than what's already on the table. There are 309 cards left out of the 312 card shoe, less than three cards already involved, the player's ace and 10 and the dealers ace.

The probability that the dealer has a 10 in the hole is 95 divided by 309. Like I just said, there's 309 cards left, the shoe started with 96 tens but the player has one of them. The chances that the dealer has an ace to 9 in the hole is 214 divided by 309.

Let's examine what the player can get back either way:

If the dealer does have that 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back nothing because the probability of zero times anything is zero. If the dealer does not have a 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back 1.5 with a probability of 214 divided by 309. The product of those two numbers is 103.88%. If we add them up, it's obvious you still get that same 103.88%.

What this means is…

…if the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up, the player can expect to win 1.0388 times his bet or about 104% of whatever he bet. The decision to whether or not to take even money is the decision; do you want to get back an average of 103.88% of your bet or just 100%?What's more? 100% or 103.88%? Well, 103.88% is more, therefore, if you're seeking the greater expected value, which you should be in any casino game, you should decline even money and go for that 103.88%.

Few caveats here:

Number one - again this is assuming the player is not counting cards, just a recreational player. Number two - this is assuming that a blackjack pays three to two.

Finally, this question has come up on my forum every once in a while and a lot of people use the argument that yes, I make a good mathematical argument for declining an insurance even money but what about the psychological argument?

If you’re in this situation with a blackjack against the dealer ace, some people will say you have a 100% chance of being happy by taking the even money, locking in a sure win but only a 69.26% chance of being happy by declining the even money.

Those figures are right but…

…in the casino as well as real life, you should be long-term minded. You should be thinking what is the expected average gain for any decision that you make? Do not always play conservatively and lock in the small win when the average win by taking a chance is greater.

Of course, there are exceptions for life-changing situations but if you’re playing Blackjack, it assumes that you like gambling, to begin with. You’re in the casino you’re gambling, gamble on winning that full one and half, don’t settle on the measly one unit. Furthermore, even if you do use this argument of I want a 100% chance of being happy right now, I’ll take the even money. That happiness is only going to last less than a minute until the next hand.

I think…

…you should be thinking what is going to be your happiness when you finally walk away from the table and you go home for your trip? The more money you win or the less money you lose from that sitting and the whole trip, the happier you’re going to be.

Furthermore, you’re going to get more, shall we say, action by taking that chance on winning with your blackjack. Like I said you’re gambling, to begin with, so gamble!

I can’t think of anything else to say on this topic. I hope that I’ve convinced you to always say no to insurance and even money.

Thanks, guys for listening and I’ll see you in the next video.

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Everyone likes to play it safe sometimes, especially when they are playing Blackjack.

There is multiple ways that players can play things a little bit more safely and less gung-ho with extra bets.

One of the more popular versions is Blackjack Surrender, which allows players to give up their hand if its looks likely they will lose and receive half their bet back.

However, this is not the only way to do so and most tables will allow its players the option for “insurance”. Blackjack insurance is a much more straightforward way of making sure you don’t lose more cash than necessary when the dealer is in a good position.

Many players are rightly skeptical of this option in Blackjack, but this said, it can still be beneficial for certain types of players and in specific situations. However, you should bear in mind that the option for insurance has many flaws and is not the best option in a lot of other scenarios.

However, read here and find out here what does insurance mean in Blackjack, learn how to use it effectively and then make your own mind up about whether or not it can benefit your future Blackjack games.

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How Blackjack Insurance Works

Essentially, Blackjack insurance allows the player the option to lessen their wager after the dealer exposes their cards and reveals an Ace card.

In this scenario, if the rule is in play, then if the dealer has an Ace then he or she will go around the table asking each player whether or not they want insurance.

When you have insurance, it means you take out half of your original bet as insurance. So for example, if you had placed a $10 bet you will then have to wager an extra $5 for the insurance to be in play.

Then, if the dealer exposes his second card and he does indeed have Blackjack, then you win your insurance $5 back as well as the other half your original bet, due to insurance paying 2:1. This means that although you will have lost the original wager, you will have got the total amount back. As such, you have broken even.

In the opposite situation, if he doesn’t, then you lose your $5 insurance bet, but will still stand to win with the original $10 wager.

When to take Insurance in Blackjack?

When to take the insurance bet is pretty straightforward, as you only get offered in the specific situation where the dealer is holding an Ace.

Naturally, it then reflects the hand you have and the probability that the dealer will be holding a 10 or a face card.

If you feel comfortable enough with your hand, for example, if you yourself are holding an Ace, regardless of your other card, naturally the odds are the same and you may as well stick to what you got.

The same goes for whether you have a good hand in any other situation, such as a picture card and an 8 or 9.

The only real exception would be in the scenario where you are holding something very weak, like a 5 or 6, where in any scenario, insurance or not, you would see yourself struggling against a dealer’s Ace.

The insurance bet is not something to take just because you can see an Ace. The fundamental issue with the Blackjack Insurance bet is the extra investment that is required and thus, you will need to be sure it is worth it.

Is the Blackjack Insurance Bet Worth it?

A lot of online blackjack chat rooms will tell you that the insurance bet is a bad bet and to be fair, this is in many ways true.

Blackjack Insurance Rule

You have to invest more to even apply it and so, it could be argued that you are already on the back foot as you have already invested more cash before you even have started to benefit.

However, to call it a bad bet each and every time is really a matter of what is in play on your side. For one, as mentioned, if you are holding a weak hand then you may stand to gain from the bet.

Here are a few of the pros and cons of using Blackjack insurance.

Pros:

• Protecting a Large Wager:If you are playing at a table that has a large initial bet in play, $100 or above for example, then it may be beneficial in this case. As you stand to lose a lot less. However, if you are playing on a smaller wager table, than to save a small bet isn’t very beneficial.
  

• Playing it Safe: If you are having a run or bad luck or happen to have a bad hand, then in this situation it may be worth considering. If you are already losing a lot and it looks like this hand isn’t going to work out either, then it may be better to cut your losses

• Dealing is Running Hot: This for players who follow their gut instincts. If you have noticed the dealer is running hot and has landed another Ace, then this may be a reason to use insurance.

• Counting Cards or Statistic Geeking: If you are counting cards or a geek about the statistics, then it is the most practical use of the bet. If you are have been doing the math and are certain a 10 is imminent then naturally, this is the best way to save cash. Essentially, if the shoe is clearly rich in tens then it might be worth considering it.

Cons:

• Maximizes Loses: Although it can see you save some money if used effectively, if the dealer doesn’t have Blackjack then you are already down an unneeded extra wager even if you win. If you lose the hand not only have you lost your first bet, but also the extra insurance too.

• Lose/Lose situation: Even if you win the insurance bet, you have still lost half your wager and as mentioned, you can stand to lose more.

• More Likely to Lose: The odds overall are stacked against you. Due to the number of 10 Cards in the deck compared to any other digit, it is always more likely that the dealer doesn’t have a 10 then does. In theory, if you were to play the insurance bet 1300 times you would lose 900 of these bets. This is obviously relative of the amount of decks in play.

• Heavily in House Favor and Blackjack Insurance Pays out 2:1: The odds are always in the house favour, due to all the reasons mentioned so far and by applying the rule, you are instantly going to lose something.

So, as you can see, Blackjack insurance is actually statistically not the right call most of the time. Unless you are close to certain that it will be pay out for you and you have taken note that there is a lot of tens still in the shoe, then you should probably avoid it.

Although for some situations, where you feel you have a particularly weak hand and there is a high chance that the dealer is going to be holding a 10, then you shouldn’t do it. Except of course, if you like to play with you gut and you get piece of mind by doing so.

Ultimately, you should probably avoid the bet as much as possible or risk being disappointed more often than not.

Alternatives to Blackjack Insurance: Playing it Safe and Maximising Wins.

Ok, so maybe Blackjack Insurance isn’t the most beneficial side bet to place, but there is several other ways to either limit your losses or maximum your bets in each round.

Below are our three top picks for versions of the game to play in different ways, some of which can save you cash others may see you benefit more!

Blackjack Surrender

Blackjack Surrender works in the same way to Blackjack insurance, in that you don’t have to lose all your money if the dealer has a good hand. Depending which you play, the more similar it is to Insurance. Blackjack with Early Surrender, is most similar to Insurance, as you look at one of the dealer’s card and if you don’t fancy your chances you can bail out nice and early and although you lose half your bet, there is no extra fee on top. As such, if you can choose between Early Surrender and Blackjack Insurance it is a no brainer. The alternative is Blackjack Late Surrender. This is slightly more challenging, but you can still stand to get your half your money back. Essentially, the way it works is that when the rule is in play, the dealer checks for Blackjack and if he doesn’t have it, the game continues and then you can use information to decide whether or not to give up. You can read more about Blackjack Surrender here!

Perfect Pairs

If you would prefer betting on your own hand opposed to the dealers and increasing your payouts, Perfect Pairs might be the Blackjack game for you. The game allows you to bet on the chance of your two cards matching in some way. You can choose from either them matching with suit, colour or both, with different payouts for each. This is much more beneficial, as not only do your odds increase if you do this, opposed to lowering with Blackjack insurance, it is more interesting then just betting on the likelihood of a loss. It is more difficult of course, with more factors contributing, but it adds a thrill to the game.

Blackjack Switch

Insurance Blackjack Meaning

This is slightly more unique way of playing then the other two options and is more of a whole new dynamic rather than it is an extra element. It is generally new version and was born in 2009. Rather than one hand, you are dealt two and are then given the option if you want to “switch” the two hands to make a set of one or two better hands. It is immediately obvious the benefits that come from this, as rather than just relying on one hand you have the option of two and if you get set of hands that combined make two superb hands then you are already on to double as much cash if it comes through. At the same time, if both are bad even with switch, then it is also double trouble and you can of course lose twice. Regardless, it still remains a safer option as you aren’t just stuck with the hand you are dealt and can manipulate the hands to insure you get at least least something out of the game.

Blackjack Insurance in Summary

Blackjack Insurance Count

Although Blackjack Insurance may be tempting to some players, overall, it cannot be recommended for the most part. There is simply too many negatives for it to be recommended as an alternative to just playing your cards as they are dealt.

That is not to say that every now and then it can’t be used, but as alternative to generic Blackjack or as a way to effectively minimize loses, it simply is ineffective. If you are a fully aware of a lot of 10’s in the deck, then this is the only time it can really be used well and it is never a sure thing.

Don’t feel downtrodden if you were looking for a new way to play and was hoping to spice it up or outsmart the dealer in a new way, there is plenty of options out there to spice up your gameplay and get more thrilling experiences and bigger wins!

Blackjack Insurance Example

However, for the most part, although we wouldn’t say it is always a “bad bet”, Blackjack Insurance may not be the smartest move and certainly, not an efficient way to cash in.